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The Macro Minute with Darius Dale

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The Macro Minute with Darius Dale

42 Macro

Is the global cost of capital too low?

July 24, 2026 3:00pm 4 min

We examine why the global cost of capital remains too low despite mounting signs of tightening global liquidity. Darius also explains how structurally elevated nominal GDP growth, depressed global savings growth, and int...

Why has Q2 earning season been a sell-the-news catalyst for AI stocks?

July 23, 2026 3:00pm 7 min

Today's Macro Minute examines why Q2 earnings season has become a sell-the-news catalyst for AI stocks. Darius explains how rising AI capital expenditures, weakening free cash flow, and intensifying competition for scarc...

Does AI have a women and young people problem?

July 22, 2026 3:00pm 7 min

We explore the growing political risks surrounding artificial intelligence as public sentiment continues to shift against the technology. Darius examines why women and younger Americans have become increasingly skeptical...

What's more likely: a short squeeze, correction, sustained recovery, or crash?

July 21, 2026 3:00pm 5 min

Darius explores what is most likely for markets next: a short squeeze, correction, sustained recovery, or crash. All four outcomes are possible—in that order—as record bearish positioning could first fuel a short squeeze...

Will intensifying competition from China's low-cost AI competitors cause US hyperscalers to reassess their capital allocation decisions?

July 20, 2026 3:00pm 6 min

Today's Macro Minute examines the growing risk that China's low-cost AI competitors could eventually force U.S. hyperscalers to reassess their AI capital spending, a development that could challenge the market's elevated...

Will the Kevin Warsh Fed be friend or foe in the years to come?

July 16, 2026 3:00pm 9 min

Today we examine whether the Kevin Warsh Fed will ultimately be a friend or foe to investors as policymakers work to transition the U.S. economy away from decades of K-shaped monetary policy. Darius explains why 42 Macro...

Is the Fed done with K-shaped monetary policy?

July 15, 2026 3:00pm 10 min

We examine whether the Federal Reserve is beginning to move away from decades of K-shaped monetary policy following Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. Darius also explains why 42 Macro believes Warsh is pursuin...

Should the Fed tighten monetary policy in 2026?

July 14, 2026 3:00pm 7 min

Today's Macro Minute explores whether the Federal Reserve should tighten monetary policy in 2026 following June's softer-than-expected CPI report. Darius explains why slowing inflation has reduced the probability of near...

Will Q2 earnings season be a sell-the-news catalyst for stocks broadly?

July 13, 2026 3:00pm 8 min

We explore whether Q2 earnings season could become a broader "sell-the-news" catalyst for equities as elevated AI expectations collide with rising risks of downward AI capex revisions and a potentially more hawkish Feder...

Will Japan break the Treasury bond market?

July 10, 2026 3:00pm 6 min

Today's Macro Minute explores why Japan's evolving fiscal and monetary policies could have far-reaching implications for global capital flows and the U.S. Treasury market. Darius explains how Japan's push toward durable ...

Should investors stop using the Mag-7 as a Source of Funds?

July 08, 2026 3:00pm 6 min

We explore whether investors should continue using the Mag-7 as a Source of Funds amid rising geopolitical tensions and an increasing probability of a risk-off market regime. Darius also explains why the long-term AI the...

Will Q2 earnings season be a sell-the-news catalyst for AI stocks?

July 07, 2026 3:00pm 5 min

Today's Macro Minute explores whether the upcoming Q2 earnings season could become a "sell the news" catalyst for AI stocks. While 42 Macro remains broadly bullish on risk assets due to supportive macro conditions, Dariu...

Will the Fed spoil the good times soon?

July 06, 2026 3:00pm 6 min

Darius explains why markets may be underestimating the risk of tighter Fed balance sheet policy, why sticky inflation remains the more important trade ahead, and how Kevin Warsh's shift away from forward guidance reinfor...

Should the Fed hike rates in 2026?

July 02, 2026 3:00pm 8 min

Darius Dale explains why the Fed should rely on balance sheet policy—not rate hikes—to address persistent inflationary pressures, while examining what the latest jobs data, labor market trends, and Kevin Warsh's evolving...

Is Fed Chair Warsh’s sanguine take on US inflation dynamics appropriate?

July 01, 2026 3:00pm 8 min

Is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh too optimistic on inflation? Darius explains why peaking inflation is not the same as sticky inflation, how AI-driven capital spending and a tightening labor market are creating persistent core i...

Why is China not participating in the AI theme?

June 30, 2026 3:00pm 5 min

Today, we examine why markets may be dramatically underestimating China's long-term AI potential, despite its strategic advantages in critical minerals, open-source AI, and political capital. We also explore whether grow...

Will sharp elbows and financing concerns force investors to rotate out of the AI theme?

June 29, 2026 3:00pm 9 min

Darius discusses the BIS's warnings surrounding AI financing, compute capacity constraints, and circular financing risks, while explaining why investors should remain disciplined when managing AI exposure and how 42 Macr...

Should investors continue to use AI providers as a Source of Funds for AI adopters?

June 24, 2026 3:00pm 6 min

Rising compute costs and slowing returns on AI infrastructure spending may pressure the margins of AI providers while creating opportunities among AI adopters. We also discuss the significance of Micron’s earnings, the r...

Is it time to take some chips off the AI table, part II?

June 23, 2026 3:00pm 6 min

Darius Dale explains why short- to medium-term investors should prepare for deeper equity volatility as rebalancing flows, crowding signals, and a hotter U.S. economy pressure risk assets. He also discusses why any 1998-...

Will the disintegrating global economy continue to support the global stock market?

June 22, 2026 3:00pm 7 min

In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale explains why the ongoing shift to a multipolar world remains a durable source of demand for AI, defense, and critical resources, while making the case for rotating capital from over-o...

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